Model output for D in the 2015 NHL draft (version 2020.0.0)

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Projected NHL PPG Predicted NHL PPG Miss Prob. 3rd-Pairing Prob. 2nd-Pairing Prob. 1st-Pairing Prob. Actual Overall Draft
Noah Hanifin(more) N. Hanifin(more) 0.39 0.2 0.21 0.58 0.16 0.05 5
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Ivan Provorov(more) I. Provorov(more) 0.47 0.15 0.19 0.49 0.2 0.12 7
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Zach Werenski(more) Z. Werenski(more) 0.59 0.34 0.08 0.1 0.58 0.24 8
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Jakub Zboril(more) J. Zboril(more) 0.0 0.66 0.11 0.05 0.24 0.59 13
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Thomas Chabot(more) T. Chabot(more) 0.73 0.15 0.46 0.35 0.13 0.06 18
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Noah Juulsen(more) N. Juulsen(more) 0.18 0.0 0.48 0.42 0.08 0.02 26
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Jacob Larsson(more) J. Larsson(more) 0.1 0.0 0.65 0.2 0.06 0.1 27
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Gabriel Carlsson(more) G. Carlsson(more) 0.14 0.0 0.67 0.3 0.03 0.0 29
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Jérémy Roy(more) J. Roy(more) 0.0 0.43 0.11 0.4 0.24 0.25 31
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Travis Dermott(more) T. Dermott(more) 0.27 0.18 0.43 0.45 0.09 0.03 34
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Brandon Carlo(more) B. Carlo(more) 0.19 0.0 0.54 0.43 0.03 0.0 37
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Nicolas Meloche(more) N. Meloche(more) 0.0 0.41 0.31 0.17 0.1 0.42 40
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Matthew Spencer(more) M. Spencer(more) 0.0 0.0 0.64 0.32 0.04 0.0 44
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Brendan Guhle(more) B. Guhle(more) 0.26 0.0 0.76 0.21 0.03 0.0 51
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Jérémy Lauzon(more) J. Lauzon(more) 0.07 0.42 0.43 0.18 0.25 0.15 52
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Rasmus Andersson(more) R. Andersson(more) 0.24 0.15 0.2 0.61 0.12 0.06 53
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Vince Dunn(more) V. Dunn(more) 0.42 0.21 0.42 0.44 0.11 0.04 56
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Kyle Capobianco(more) K. Capobianco(more) 0.11 0.0 0.74 0.21 0.04 0.01 63
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Andrew Nielsen(more) A. Nielsen(more) 0.0 0.0 0.52 0.45 0.03 0.0 65
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Guillaume Brisebois(more) G. Brisebois(more) 0.0 0.0 0.78 0.16 0.05 0.01 66
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Vili Saarijärvi(more) V. Saarijärvi(more) 0.0 0.0 0.56 0.29 0.11 0.03 73
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Sergei Zborovsky(more) S. Zborovsky(more) 0.0 0.0 0.62 0.35 0.03 0.0 79
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Mitchell Vande Sompel(more) M. Vande(more) 0.0 0.41 0.08 0.41 0.25 0.26 82
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Thomas Schemitsch(more) T. Schemitsch(more) 0.0 0.19 0.43 0.5 0.06 0.01 88
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Dennis Gilbert(more) D. Gilbert(more) 0.15 0.0 0.6 0.37 0.03 0.01 91
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Jesper Lindgren(more) J. Lindgren(more) 0.0 0.61 0.13 0.16 0.23 0.49 95
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Colton White(more) C. White(more) 0.0 0.0 0.76 0.2 0.03 0.0 97
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Chris Martenet(more) C. Martenet(more) 0.0 0.17 0.33 0.62 0.04 0.0 103
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Parker Wotherspoon(more) P. Wotherspoon(more) 0.0 0.0 0.82 0.15 0.02 0.0 112
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Alexandre Carrier(more) A. Carrier(more) 0.0 0.39 0.17 0.28 0.22 0.33 115
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Caleb Jones(more) C. Jones(more) 0.33 0.0 0.61 0.33 0.06 0.01 117
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Devante Stephens(more) D. Stephens(more) 0.0 0.0 0.72 0.25 0.02 0.0 122
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Ethan Bear(more) E. Bear(more) 0.32 0.0 0.61 0.29 0.08 0.01 124
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Sam Ruopp(more) S. Ruopp(more) 0.0 0.0 0.89 0.11 0.0 0.0 129
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Joseph Cecconi(more) J. Cecconi(more) 0.0 0.0 0.62 0.33 0.04 0.0 133
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Christian Jaros(more) C. Jaros(more) 0.17 0.0 0.77 0.22 0.01 0.0 139
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Connor Hobbs(more) C. Hobbs(more) 0.0 0.0 0.65 0.31 0.04 0.0 143
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Carl Neill(more) C. Neill(more) 0.0 0.18 0.45 0.37 0.16 0.03 144
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Ryan Pilon(more) R. Pilon(more) 0.0 0.17 0.36 0.57 0.06 0.01 147
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Ryan Zuhlsdorf(more) R. Zuhlsdorf(more) 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.22 0.06 0.01 150
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Stephen Desrocher(more) S. Desrocher(more) 0.0 0.0 0.85 0.14 0.0 0.0 155
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Sergei Boikov(more) S. Boikov(more) 0.0 0.0 0.91 0.09 0.0 0.0 161
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Nick Boka(more) N. Boka(more) 0.0 0.0 0.81 0.17 0.02 0.0 171
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Simon Bourque(more) S. Bourque(more) 0.0 0.0 0.52 0.37 0.08 0.03 177
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Steven Ruggiero(more) S. Ruggiero(more) 0.0 0.0 0.48 0.46 0.05 0.0 178
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Chaz Reddekopp(more) C. Reddekopp(more) 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.45 0.04 0.0 187
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Riley Bruce(more) R. Bruce(more) 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.43 0.07 0.0 196
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Gustav Bouramman(more) G. Bouramman(more) 0.0 0.0 0.51 0.39 0.08 0.02 201
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Petter Hansson(more) P. Hansson(more) 0.0 0.35 0.34 0.16 0.34 0.16 202
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Tate Olson(more) T. Olson(more) 0.0 0.0 0.77 0.2 0.02 0.0 210
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Correct classifications: 23.0 / 50
Nearly correct classifications: 16.0 / 50
Misses: 11.0 / 50
False Positives: 12.0
False Negatives: 15.0
We could have estimated 33.0 / 50 correctly by guessing all misses.