Model output for F in the 2015 NHL draft (version 2020.0.0)

Reading guide:

Projected NHL PPG Predicted NHL PPG Miss Prob. 4th-Liner Prob. Solid Prob. First-Liner Prob. Actual Overall Draft
Connor McDavid(more) C. McDavid(more) 1.43 0.81 0.0 0.01 0.09 0.89 1
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Dylan Strome(more) D. Strome(more) 0.72 0.5 0.12 0.24 0.46 0.18 3
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Mitchell Marner(more) M. Marner(more) 1.09 0.92 0.08 0.14 0.37 0.41 4
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Pavel Zacha(more) P. Zacha(more) 0.37 0.0 0.63 0.34 0.03 0.0 6
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Timo Meier(more) T. Meier(more) 0.76 0.54 0.22 0.27 0.46 0.04 9
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Mikko Rantanen(more) M. Rantanen(more) 1.08 0.51 0.09 0.49 0.37 0.05 10
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Lawson Crouse(more) L. Crouse(more) 0.3 0.0 0.59 0.33 0.08 0.0 11
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Denis Guryanov(more) D. Guryanov(more) 0.4 0.24 0.46 0.47 0.06 0.01 12
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Jake DeBrusk(more) J. DeBrusk(more) 0.62 0.27 0.48 0.31 0.2 0.01 14
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Zach Senyshyn(more) Z. Senyshyn(more) 0.5 0.0 0.75 0.22 0.03 0.0 15
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Mathew Barzal(more) M. Barzal(more) 0.99 0.24 0.41 0.4 0.13 0.06 16
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Kyle Connor(more) K. Connor(more) 0.8 0.59 0.15 0.18 0.35 0.32 17
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Yevgeni Svechnikov(more) Y. Svechnikov(more) 0.27 0.19 0.32 0.39 0.27 0.01 19
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Joel Eriksson Ek(more) J. Eriksson(more) 0.41 0.0 0.61 0.27 0.12 0.0 20
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Brock Boeser(more) B. Boeser(more) 0.82 0.57 0.21 0.2 0.4 0.19 23
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Travis Konecny(more) T. Konecny(more) 0.6 0.0 0.6 0.28 0.11 0.01 24
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Jack Roslovic(more) J. Roslovic(more) 0.33 0.6 0.09 0.21 0.42 0.29 25
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Anthony Beauvillier(more) A. Beauvillier(more) 0.48 0.53 0.32 0.31 0.26 0.1 28
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Nick Merkley(more) N. Merkley(more) 0.0 0.21 0.43 0.46 0.08 0.03 30
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Christian Fischer(more) C. Fischer(more) 0.39 0.51 0.21 0.21 0.45 0.13 32
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Mitchell Stephens(more) M. Stephens(more) 0.17 0.0 0.7 0.25 0.04 0.0 33
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Gabriel Gagné(more) G. Gagné(more) 0.0 0.0 0.63 0.28 0.09 0.0 36
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Paul Bittner(more) P. Bittner(more) 0.0 0.27 0.49 0.34 0.17 0.0 38
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Ryan Gropp(more) R. Gropp(more) 0.0 0.0 0.62 0.3 0.08 0.0 41
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Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson(more) J. Forsbacka(more) 0.31 0.27 0.47 0.37 0.15 0.02 45
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Daniel Sprong(more) D. Sprong(more) 0.36 0.28 0.43 0.32 0.22 0.04 46
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Jansen Harkins(more) J. Harkins(more) 0.15 0.0 0.53 0.36 0.09 0.02 47
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Filip Chlapík(more) F. Chlapík(more) 0.19 0.28 0.43 0.35 0.2 0.02 48
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Roope Hintz(more) R. Hintz(more) 0.54 0.5 0.13 0.39 0.35 0.13 49
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Jordan Greenway(more) J. Greenway(more) 0.3 0.0 0.59 0.32 0.09 0.0 50
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Graham Knott(more) G. Knott(more) 0.0 0.0 0.74 0.22 0.04 0.0 54
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Yakov Trenin(more) Y. Trenin(more) 0.43 0.3 0.52 0.37 0.1 0.01 55
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Kevin Stenlund(more) K. Stenlund(more) 0.34 0.26 0.5 0.36 0.14 0.0 58
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Jeremy Bracco(more) J. Bracco(more) 0.0 0.56 0.16 0.16 0.27 0.41 61
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Dennis Yan(more) D. Yan(more) 0.0 0.0 0.53 0.33 0.13 0.01 64
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Blake Speers(more) B. Speers(more) 0.0 0.0 0.55 0.34 0.1 0.01 67
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Martins Dzierkals(more) M. Dzierkals(more) 0.0 0.0 0.59 0.38 0.03 0.0 68
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Keegan Kolesar(more) K. Kolesar(more) 0.0 0.0 0.69 0.28 0.03 0.0 69
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Jean-Christophe Beaudin(more) J. Beaudin(more) 0.05 0.0 0.72 0.25 0.03 0.0 71
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Anthony Cirelli(more) A. Cirelli(more) 0.5 0.0 0.82 0.16 0.01 0.0 72
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Alexander Dergachyov(more) A. Dergachyov(more) 0.0 0.0 0.53 0.42 0.04 0.0 74
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Erik Foley(more) E. Foley(more) 0.0 0.21 0.47 0.37 0.14 0.02 78
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Brent Gates Jr.(more) B. Gates(more) 0.0 0.0 0.53 0.36 0.1 0.01 80
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Jens Lööke(more) J. Lööke(more) 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.18 0.02 0.0 83
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Deven Sideroff(more) D. Sideroff(more) 0.0 0.0 0.79 0.18 0.03 0.0 84
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Thomas Novak(more) T. Novak(more) 0.0 0.18 0.48 0.35 0.14 0.02 85
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Lukas Vejdemo(more) L. Vejdemo(more) 0.0 0.21 0.27 0.6 0.13 0.0 87
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Aleksi Saarela(more) A. Saarela(more) 0.0 0.0 0.59 0.37 0.03 0.0 89
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Adam Musil(more) A. Musil(more) 0.0 0.0 0.77 0.22 0.01 0.0 94
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Nicolas Roy(more) N. Roy(more) 0.36 0.0 0.75 0.23 0.02 0.0 96
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Samuel Dove-McFalls(more) S. Dove-McFalls(more) 0.0 0.0 0.78 0.2 0.02 0.0 98
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Austin Wagner(more) A. Wagner(more) 0.32 0.0 0.75 0.22 0.03 0.0 99
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Anthony Richard(more) A. Richard(more) 0.0 0.23 0.47 0.26 0.23 0.04 100
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Mikhail Vorobyov(more) M. Vorobyov(more) 0.15 0.0 0.75 0.23 0.02 0.0 104
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Jesse Gabrielle(more) J. Gabrielle(more) 0.0 0.0 0.61 0.38 0.01 0.0 105
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Filip Ahl(more) F. Ahl(more) 0.0 0.2 0.39 0.49 0.11 0.0 109
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Brad Morrison(more) B. Morrison(more) 0.0 0.0 0.77 0.19 0.04 0.0 113
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Dmitri Zhukenov(more) D. Zhukenov(more) 0.0 0.0 0.82 0.18 0.0 0.0 114
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Glenn Gawdin(more) G. Gawdin(more) 0.0 0.0 0.73 0.24 0.02 0.0 116
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Jonne Tammela(more) J. Tammela(more) 0.0 0.0 0.75 0.22 0.03 0.0 118
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Daniel Bernhardt(more) D. Bernhardt(more) 0.0 0.57 0.25 0.39 0.34 0.02 119
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Mathieu Joseph(more) M. Joseph(more) 0.36 0.0 0.71 0.24 0.04 0.0 120
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Conor Garland(more) C. Garland(more) 0.55 0.61 0.1 0.33 0.51 0.05 123
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Dmytro Timashov(more) D. Timashov(more) 0.26 0.28 0.41 0.43 0.12 0.04 125
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Matt Bradley(more) M. Bradley(more) 0.0 0.0 0.78 0.2 0.02 0.0 131
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Matt Schmalz(more) M. Schmalz(more) 0.0 0.0 0.71 0.27 0.01 0.0 134
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Pavel Karnaukhov(more) P. Karnaukhov(more) 0.0 0.0 0.73 0.24 0.03 0.0 136
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Spencer Smallman(more) S. Smallman(more) 0.0 0.0 0.63 0.32 0.05 0.0 138
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Chase Pearson(more) C. Pearson(more) 0.0 0.0 0.73 0.26 0.01 0.0 140
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Troy Terry(more) T. Terry(more) 0.39 0.0 0.72 0.25 0.03 0.0 148
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Adam Gaudette(more) A. Gaudette(more) 0.48 0.0 0.78 0.2 0.03 0.0 149
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Giorgio Estephan(more) G. Estephan(more) 0.0 0.0 0.64 0.29 0.07 0.0 152
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Cooper Marody(more) C. Marody(more) 0.0 0.56 0.2 0.25 0.38 0.17 158
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Christopher Wilkie(more) C. Wilkie(more) 0.0 0.23 0.48 0.3 0.2 0.01 162
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Roy Radke(more) R. Radke(more) 0.0 0.0 0.87 0.12 0.01 0.0 164
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Andrew Mangiapane(more) A. Mangiapane(more) 0.34 0.2 0.3 0.44 0.24 0.01 166
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Mason Appleton(more) M. Appleton(more) 0.26 0.24 0.5 0.49 0.02 0.0 168
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Liam Dunda(more) L. Dunda(more) 0.0 0.0 0.85 0.14 0.0 0.0 176
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Bokondji Imama(more) B. Imama(more) 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 180
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Nikita Korostelev(more) N. Korostelev(more) 0.0 0.0 0.57 0.32 0.1 0.0 185
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Steven Lorentz(more) S. Lorentz(more) 0.0 0.0 0.72 0.27 0.02 0.0 186
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Gustav Olhaver(more) G. Olhaver(more) 0.0 0.0 0.84 0.15 0.01 0.0 191
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Nikita Pavlychev(more) N. Pavlychev(more) 0.0 0.0 0.83 0.17 0.0 0.0 197
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Adam Marsh(more) A. Marsh(more) 0.0 0.0 0.71 0.24 0.05 0.0 200
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Matteo Gennaro(more) M. Gennaro(more) 0.0 0.0 0.83 0.16 0.01 0.0 203
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Jeremiah Addison(more) J. Addison(more) 0.0 0.0 0.74 0.23 0.03 0.0 207
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John Dahlström(more) J. Dahlström(more) 0.0 0.56 0.32 0.22 0.29 0.17 211
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Correct classifications: 49.0 / 87
Nearly correct classifications: 28.0 / 87
Misses: 10.0 / 87
False Positives: 14.0
False Negatives: 24.0
We could have estimated 48.0 / 87 correctly by guessing all misses.